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The polls are open for parliamentary elections in the Netherlands, with current polling data indicating that the anti-immigration leader Geert Wilders and his Freedom party (PVV) may repeat their win the most seats, although analysts suggest PVV stands little chance of being part of the next government.

Survey Results and Political Landscape

Wilders' party, which previously achieved a shock first-place finish and formed a four-party right-leaning government that lasted barely a year, is currently marginally ahead in the polls and is projected to secure between 24 and 28 seats in the 150-member house of representatives.

However, the far-right party's popularity has dipped since 2023, when it secured 37 parliamentary seats. Every significant political group have stated they will not forming a government with Wilders, who precipitated the collapse of the outgoing coalition in June amid disagreements concerning his radical immigration plans.

Major Parties and Forecasts

Following a election period focused on topics such as immigration, healthcare costs, and the nation's acute housing crisis, the centre-left GL/PvdA coalition, led by former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, is running a close second, projected to win between 22 to 26 seats.

Also forecast to do well is the liberal-progressive Democrats 66, projected to boost its representation by almost five times to 21-25 seats, while the centre-right CDA is anticipated to significantly increase its seat tally to between 18 to 22.

The outgoing cabinet members – comprising the PVV, liberal-conservative VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and centrist New Social Contract (NSC) – are all forecast to see their representation reduced, with some facing heavy declines.

Voting Process and Political Division

Under the Netherlands' electoral system, securing just less than one percent of the vote yields a party a seat in parliament. Among the 27 parties participating in the vote – including senior-focused parties, for youth, animal rights parties, basic income advocates, and for sport – as many as 16 could enter the legislature.

This high degree of division ensures that no single party is expected to win a majority, and Holland has been ruled by multi-party governments – often including several groups in the last few administrations – for over 100 years.

Post-Election Scenarios

The PVV leader claimed that "democracy will be dead" in the country if the his party ends up as the biggest group yet is excluded from power. But, opponents and experts say that winning the most seats does not guarantee government participation and that any governing alliance with a majority is a democratic outcome.

Although the election result is uncertain and coalition talks may require several months, analysts suggest that following the most extreme government in recent memory, the future government is likely to be a broad-based coalition led by either the centre-left or centrist right.

Election Day Details

Voting locations, such as those in the Madurodam model village in The Hague and the Anne Frank house in Amsterdam, opened at 7:30 AM (6.30am GMT) and will close at 9pm. A typically reliable exit poll is expected soon after the polls close.

After the vote, an informateur will test potential governing alliances that could secure enough support in the legislature. Potential partners will then draft a governing pact for the next four years and must undergo a vote of confidence in the house before taking office.